Tom Dec

abitnippy:

Jon Huntsman has 72 hours to prevent a devastating loss in New Hampshire. In my view, he has three main problems:

1. He is perceived as Romney’s stunt double. People don’t really know the difference between them.

2. His name recognition isn’t high enough. A significant number of people in New Hampshire (let alone the rest of the country) still don’t know who he is. I know this from firsthand experience.

3. His campaign doesn’t have a clearly defined message. Huntsman is the “moderate” candidate, but also the “consistent conservative.” He comes out in favor of evolution and global warming but stops short of positioning himself as the most rational contender in the field. He’s just like Romney but doesn’t flip flop. Huntsman needs something more compelling than these confusing and contradictory points if he wants to win.

With so little time (and so little money) left in the race, he only has one option: Go viral. The #jon2012girls effort was a step in the right direction, but he needs something even bigger.

Here are a few ideas:

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abitnippy is right in that Huntsman is a Romney stunt double. Their places on the ideological spectrum are similar, except that people know Romney better. Romney also has more money and arguably more experience in politics. Huntsman is having trouble beating Romney as his own game. If Huntsman wants a shot he definitely needs to be more aggressive and take calculated risks, but I some of these suggestions are extreme. 

Even better would be to make them snarky and appeal to younger voters: “Jon Huntsman. Because every other candidate sucks.”

This is a horrible, horrible idea. Jon Huntsman should not hope for younger voters to push him over the edge. He has a problem with older voters, and a snarky ad campaign would not help to attract them. In fact, it will only work to deter them from voting. 

Based on a Public Policy Poll conducted from December 16-18th, 64% of voters age 46-65 and 75% of voters over age 65 have a positive impression of Romney, whereas for Huntsman it is 51% and 46% respectively. This is a difference of 13% and 29% - huge.  

In 2008, only 14% of GOP Primary voters were under age 30, while 49% were over age 50. There’s no reason to expect that these youth numbers will top those set in 2008. Even on the Democratic side, where we experienced a high water mark for young voter engagement, voters under 30 were only 18% of the vote. 

Huntsman needs to attract senior votes. I think the idea of painting the other candidates as extreme and going with something along the lines of the “call me crazy” theme is good for New Hampshire. But if he tries to be “cool” and snarky, he’ll almost definitely lose. He needs seniors and he needs to show them the downsides of a Romney candidacy. 

The media is again devoting airtime to Donald Trump and the drama of his presidential conquest.

After soaking up weeks of coverage this spring with his prospective run for the GOP nomination, Trump receded from the limelight. Then, after he couldn’t get Romney to agree to join a debate he was slated to moderate, he took the opportunity to bolt. The move attracted news coverage of course, but no matter how blatant the move is as a ploy to attract attention, the media still consumes it in a frenzy. 

Trump is not going to run for President. I wrote on this topic earlier this year and I think the reasons still hold. Maybe this time around, though, the coverage of the upcoming GOP caucuses and primaries will overshadow him. 

You can read the article from Politico here.

As we get ready to sharpen our carving knives and cut up our Thanksgiving turkey, we should take a moment to recognize the importance of Thanksgiving. It is a holiday that is distinctly American. I would even argue that it is the most patriotic holiday that we celebrate. It is a holiday that has its roots in the partnership of the pilgrims and natives, and it is one that even survived the divide of our Civil War.

They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy. It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and one voice by the whole American People. - Abraham Lincoln, 1863

In the heat of the most violent conflict in our history - one that almost resulted in the destruction of the Union that we enjoy today - President Lincoln made this universal appeal to the citizenry, north and south. Regardless of your side of the war, all people can and should pause to give thanks to the fruits of America. 

the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom

While we are not divided to the degree that we experienced in the Civil War, many of Lincoln’s words still ring true today. In spite of the fierce divide in Washington over the debt, our national security policy, and the fundamental role of the federal government, we should pause to reflect on the privileges of living in the United States and give thanks. 

 Thanksgiving is a holiday where we trade in our pomp and circumstance for humble reflection. It is a day when our red, white, and blue are not displayed on our chest, but through our families, homes, and hearts. It’s a holiday that unifies us as a country and a culture. And that’s pretty magical.

Professor Sprigman of the University of Virginia School of Law authored an op-ed that ran in today’s Chicago Tribune that I thought was especially timely and provoking. Sprigman is a former Obama ‘08 employee, but has since resolved that the President is “weak,” that he has “broken with the faith that has sustained Democrats since the 1930s” and that, in the end, he urges Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to run against Obama. 

The professor is not alone in his sentiments, I’m sure. At this juncture, the President must demonstrate to the Democratic Party that he is willing to fight for their interests and defend the progress they have achieved over the past couple of generations. I’ll admit, I’m disappointed in the President’s performance in negotiating the debt deal. No doubt about it. The only thing I’m more disappointed in and angry at are the Tea Party representatives in the House of Representatives, but this is precisely the problem. I sincerely hope that my vote in 2012 will not be a “lesser of two evils” decision, but a vote of confidence that the President will fight for not just solutions, but Democratic and practical solutions, to our problems. 

The U.S. is immersed in a largely unprecedented crisis. We have a highly-divided government, with a 2010 coalition of conservative (often Tea Party) Republicans controlling the House and the remnants of the 2006 and 2008 coalitions of moderate and liberal Democrats controlling the Senate and Presidency. Americans usually love divided government (we’ve voted for it time and time again), yet this time it seems that our divided government is devolving into a failed government. 

I’ve put together this little guide to help clarify and summarize the political circumstances that have led to the current debt crisis.

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The story of yesterday’s gay marriage vote in New York isn’t that it was approved, but how it came to be approved. New York isn’t the first state to allow gay couples to marry, but it indicates an amazing milestone for the movement. Why? 

1. It was a GOP-controlled Senate that passed it. 

While it’s true that it passed with only a handful of Republican votes, it is still extremely remarkable that the GOP leadership allowed for it to come to a vote. For an issue that the GOP base seems to care passionately about, it is clear that the GOP saw the writing on the wall that they had to appease the public pressure and allow it to come to a vote. This wouldn’t have happened five years ago. Heck, the measure was defeated as recently as 2009.  

2. It was the legislature that passed it. 

This isn’t a first, as other states have had gay marriage instated through legislation, but I think it’s always more impressive when the legislature - the representatives of the people - pass it. While Court orders, as was done in MA, CT, IA, and CA, are still extremely powerful, the legislative approval has more teeth and gives the movement more legitimacy. 

3. This is the largest state with gay marriage. 

New York is a big state. It has almost 20 million people living in it, and believe it or not, not all of those people are Democrats. There are significant pockets of GOP-leaning voters. As recently as 2006 they had a Republican Governor, even. It’s a big deal. 

4. This is the first state outside of New England to have the legislature vote on and approve gay marriage. 

This is huge. While New York is pretty Democratic and liberal, it’s still a major achievement. As mentioned above, it is a diverse place and outside of New England. It breaks the trend of “small, liberal, New England states” being associated with gay marriage (like MA or VT). It’s showing that progress is being achieved, and the progress is moving west.

5. The Supreme Court of the U.S. is watching. 

There are a few cases that are being appealed to the Supreme Court, and they are bound to be watching this news. If the trend in the public is towards offering same-sex marriage (public opinion has been shifting in that direction), they will be hard-pressed to uphold the bans that persist in other states. The legislature voting in the approval in New York is major, and it’s only building the case that this is truly a civil right that needs to be protected by the federal government. 

So, well done New York. It’s one of the reasons why I love this country - progress is possible.

I think Ezra Klein’s tweet summed it up well: 

Romney: Came in line with expectations, probably seemed the most presidential on the stage and had a commanding tenor and presence. He’s the guy to beat, and he was afraid to act it.

Pawlenty: Underperformed. Should have backed-up his claim about Obamneycare but didn’t do it well. 

Bachmann: Exceeded expectations. Seems like less of an extreme and definitely seems like she can capture and generate enthusiasm from the GOP base. Watch her. 

Paul: He’s Ron Paul. He did what Ron Paul does. Played to his base just fine, but he’s not going anywhere. 

Gingrich: I thought he left politics 15 years ago? 

Santorum and Cain: Afterthoughts of the debate.