Tom Dec

Hello,

I am running to represent Connecticut’s 4th Congressional District in Charlotte, NC this September at the 2012 Democratic National Convention! Check out my candidacy announcement here: http://www.tomdec.com/dnc. 

I am excited for the weeks and months ahead as we prepare for what will be an exciting and historic election year. As always, don’t hesitate to contact me with questions (tom.dec@yale.edu).

Thanks, 

Tom

abitnippy:

Jon Huntsman has 72 hours to prevent a devastating loss in New Hampshire. In my view, he has three main problems:

1. He is perceived as Romney’s stunt double. People don’t really know the difference between them.

2. His name recognition isn’t high enough. A significant number of people in New Hampshire (let alone the rest of the country) still don’t know who he is. I know this from firsthand experience.

3. His campaign doesn’t have a clearly defined message. Huntsman is the “moderate” candidate, but also the “consistent conservative.” He comes out in favor of evolution and global warming but stops short of positioning himself as the most rational contender in the field. He’s just like Romney but doesn’t flip flop. Huntsman needs something more compelling than these confusing and contradictory points if he wants to win.

With so little time (and so little money) left in the race, he only has one option: Go viral. The #jon2012girls effort was a step in the right direction, but he needs something even bigger.

Here are a few ideas:

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abitnippy is right in that Huntsman is a Romney stunt double. Their places on the ideological spectrum are similar, except that people know Romney better. Romney also has more money and arguably more experience in politics. Huntsman is having trouble beating Romney as his own game. If Huntsman wants a shot he definitely needs to be more aggressive and take calculated risks, but I some of these suggestions are extreme. 

Even better would be to make them snarky and appeal to younger voters: “Jon Huntsman. Because every other candidate sucks.”

This is a horrible, horrible idea. Jon Huntsman should not hope for younger voters to push him over the edge. He has a problem with older voters, and a snarky ad campaign would not help to attract them. In fact, it will only work to deter them from voting. 

Based on a Public Policy Poll conducted from December 16-18th, 64% of voters age 46-65 and 75% of voters over age 65 have a positive impression of Romney, whereas for Huntsman it is 51% and 46% respectively. This is a difference of 13% and 29% - huge.  

In 2008, only 14% of GOP Primary voters were under age 30, while 49% were over age 50. There’s no reason to expect that these youth numbers will top those set in 2008. Even on the Democratic side, where we experienced a high water mark for young voter engagement, voters under 30 were only 18% of the vote. 

Huntsman needs to attract senior votes. I think the idea of painting the other candidates as extreme and going with something along the lines of the “call me crazy” theme is good for New Hampshire. But if he tries to be “cool” and snarky, he’ll almost definitely lose. He needs seniors and he needs to show them the downsides of a Romney candidacy. 

The media is again devoting airtime to Donald Trump and the drama of his presidential conquest.

After soaking up weeks of coverage this spring with his prospective run for the GOP nomination, Trump receded from the limelight. Then, after he couldn’t get Romney to agree to join a debate he was slated to moderate, he took the opportunity to bolt. The move attracted news coverage of course, but no matter how blatant the move is as a ploy to attract attention, the media still consumes it in a frenzy. 

Trump is not going to run for President. I wrote on this topic earlier this year and I think the reasons still hold. Maybe this time around, though, the coverage of the upcoming GOP caucuses and primaries will overshadow him. 

You can read the article from Politico here.